Nobody Really Knows Anything

Poor predictions, awful opinions, and rampant over-confidence

In a recent piece about impostor syndrome, I shared quotes from successful writers who struggled with the same negative voice in their heads that so many others do. The point was, if even these talented people sometimes feel like a fraud, maybe we shouldn’t take our own harsh self-criticism at face value.

But there’s a flip side to that: a lot of people who are supposed to know what they’re doing, don’t. Realizing that is important too.

The adults are talking

When you’re young, it’s natural to believe that adults have it all together. They seem so sure of themselves and speak with such authority.

You look forward to the day that you too will have this life thing all figured out. No more scraped knees and forced play dates with weirdos for you. You’ll do whatever you want, whenever you want. It’ll be ice cream for dinner and Xbox all weekend long.

Then cracks begin to appear in the facade

Your cool science teacher singes his hipster beard in a botched volcano demonstration. Wait a minute…I worshipped this guy but he just blew up his face and now he looks like a frightened hobo.  

You ask your parents why bad things happen in the world. Your dad tells you to finish your peas or bad things will happen to you. Take it easy, man. And that seemed suspiciously like a dodge.

Your aunt Sheila gets conned out of thousands of dollars by her deadbeat boyfriend. Again. Even I saw that one coming, and I just spent an hour cutting gum out of my hair. Again.

Something’s amiss. At times, adults seem more lost than that dope Tommy who got all the way to school before he realized it was Saturday. How could this be?

“We can close the book on infectious diseases.” —U.S. Surgeon General William H. Stewart, 1969

For me, the biggest eye-opener was that, even in the medical field, there are people who are way out over their skis. Thinking that doctors should know everything is naive. Turns out thinking that doctors know everything they say they know is also naive.

When you’re looking for answers, hearing “I don’t know” from a medical professional is disappointing. But it’s understandable, and it’s honest.

It’s also far preferable to a doctor confidently telling you “It’s nothing” when in fact it’s something. This has happened to me more than once, the arrogance wafting off these guys like smoke from a hipster’s scorched beard.

Of course, confident ignorance extends to every area, from science…

"Everyone acquainted with the subject will recognize it as a conspicuous failure." —Henry Morton, president of the Stevens Institute of Technology, on Edison's light bulb, 1880

…to modern technology…

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." —Ken Olson, president, chairman, and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977

…to economics.

"By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's." —Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman, 1998

The examples go on and on.

Creatively speaking

Terrible expert predictions and opinions are perhaps even more prevalent with regard to creative endeavors. With alarming regularity, people who are paid handsomely to know what they’re talking about prove they have no idea what they’re talking about.

"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" —H. M. Warner, co-founder of Warner Bros., 1927

There are studio executives whose jobs it is to decide which movies to make. Marvel movies are about as safe a bet as can be, right? Yet 2023’s The Marvels suffered a net loss of $237 million. And it had Marvel right there in the goddamn title! As you know, this wasn’t an anomaly; expected hits flop all the time.

On the other side of the coin, there are sometimes happy surprises. No one at Netflix expected American audiences to become obsessed with the Korean show Squid Game, but when it dropped in late 2021, that’s exactly what occurred. As it happens, watching exhausted pseudo-prisoners compete to the death is damn good entertainment.

“Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.” —20th Century Fox studio mogul Daryl Zanuck, 1946

I think these blind spots are crucial to acknowledge because there’s a lot of criticism and rejection baked into creative disciplines. Anytime you put yourself out there creatively, there are those who won’t quite get it. Unfortunately, sometimes those people are in the position to accept or reject your work.

Rejections are frustrating. But it’s helpful to remember that you’re not being critiqued by an institution, like a magazine, or a record company. You’re being critiqued by a human being.

A human being who may be a completely unqualified wanker.

A human being who could be off her game because she’s going through a bitter divorce.

A human being who might say no because your name reminds him of the jerk who used to give him swirlies in the junior high bathroom.

These things happen in all creative spheres, from publishing…

"Children just aren’t interested in witches and wizards anymore." —Anonymous publishing executive, to J.K. Rowling, 1996

…to music…

“We don’t like their sound. Groups of guitars are on the way out.” —Dick Rowe, head of A&R at Decca Records, to Beatles manager Brian Epstein, 1962

…to theater…

"The show's twenty-two songs were written by Stephen Schwartz, and not one of them is memorable.” The New Yorker critic John Lahr, reviewing Wicked, 2003

…to every other creative realm.

Someone probably looked at the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel and said to Michelangelo, “The penis. Really?”

Getting discouraged by rejection or negative comments is natural. But it’s not mandatory. Just because someone opens their mouth doesn’t mean what comes out of it has any value. I mean, just turn on C-Span.

This is where “consider the source” comes in. In these situations, there are several questions worth asking yourself.

• Is there anything you can learn from what they said?

• Do they have experience doing the thing they’re critiquing?

• Do they have a track record you respect?

• Could you take them in a fist fight?

• Do you have, or can you get, their home address?

Artists need to put the negativity that comes their way in the proper context. Taste is subjective. The best anyone can do is to keep working. Keep improving. Keep trusting that, if you’re happy with what you’re doing, chances are there are other people out there who will be too.

And if you find yourself getting discouraged, here’s one last quote to shore you up until you get your legs back under you.

“I discovered that rejections are not altogether a bad thing. They teach a writer to rely on his own judgment and to say in his heart of hearts, ‘To hell with you.’ ” —Saul Bellow, 1985

Now, that’s good writing.